Hypernomics Newsletter
December, 2022
Welcome to the
Hypernomics Newsletter!
I’m Doug Howarth, CEO of Hypernomics, Inc. You’re getting this newsletter because we either worked together, met each other at a professional conference, or connected online.
This monthly newsletter contains the latest insights into the world of Hypernomics. Our goal is to give our dedicated readers the first look into the inner working of markets that only Hypernomics can provide.
To kick off this inaugural issue, we are providing you access to a video that demonstrates the world’s first look into an eight-dimensional system. It’s a presentation I gave at the International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association’s (ICEAA) annual international conference in May in Pittsburgh. I called it 8D Cost Trades With Entanglement.
If you have any questions after watching, feel free to contact me.
Many of you might remember our old name, Multidimensional Economic Evaluators, Inc., or MEE Inc., and wonder why we changed it. While it’s true we study markets in multiple dimensions, we found our techniques work in different spheres. For example, we found we can describe COVID-19 using our patented MEE4DTM software. Our new name, Hypernomics, takes its first part from “hyper-“, one definition of which is #3 below.
hyper-
pref.
- Over; above; beyond: hypercharge.
- Excessive; excessively: hypercritical.
- Existing in more than three dimensions: hyperspace.
- Linked or arranged nonsequentially: hypertext.
We take the second part of our name from -nomy,
-nomy
suff.
A system of laws governing or a body of knowledge about a specified field: aeronomy.
Thus, Hypernomics is a body of knowledge about realms existing in four or more dimensions.
Here’s how Hypernomics sees the development of the Airbus A380 and why it should never have been built:
Launched in 2000, the Airbus ceased its A380 (A) production in December 2021, as the 251st unit rolled off the line. That’s lots of big jets. But, their 20-year goal was 1250. How did it go so wrong?
Many pundits claim they knew it wouldn’t make its target. Most appeared when the program foundered late in its lifespan. What would it take to predict its future in advance?
Projects often use 1) business case analyses and 2) customer polls to “verify it pencils out.” That works if 1) analysts conceive those cases fairly and 2) buyers convert at or above a target sales figure.
What if we don’t have to rely on those techniques?
To forecast the next 20 years, study the last 20. As the chart of Airliner Sales (below) reveals (summing all model types to base versions), the airliner market had a poorly correlated (Adj R^2 0.458) yet statistically significant (P-Value 0.035) Demand Frontier over that period. Airbus’s target was nearly ten standard deviations past it.
The A380 took €25B to develop. It didn’t recoup its investment. Take time to model markets in advance. See what a market did to bound what it will do. You may not like the answers, but it beats losing billions.
*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Competition_between_Airbus_and_Boeing
Over 2.5 years ago, Hypernomics launched its own internal fund based on its insights. Those techniques arise from a discovery we made, called the
Law of Value and Demand, which states that:
- Product features drive Value,
- Value determine Price,
- Price limits Quantity Sold, and
- Quantity Sold is a Feature.
We, as most buyers do, look for undervalued stocks. During that period, we have consistently outperformed the other major indices. In the chart below, the Hypernomics fund draws its stock picks from the S&P 500. Note that as of October 12, 2022, it was doing 7.7X as well as the index that supplied its picks.
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