Structure Turns Up

Things don’t turn up in this world until somebody turns them up.
James A. Garfield

In the mid-1900s, there was a race to find the mechanism that passed on genetic instructions.  The double helix structure of DNA that James Watson and Francis Crick discovered was a simpler solution than many biologists thought possible and caught many of them by surprise (A).

Imagine the surprise of many, then, when no one else thought to look, the law of supply and demand is supplanted by the Law of Value and Demand from Hypernomics, which, like DNA, is a long-standing structure which only turns up with lots of hard work and a little imagination.  As shown in B, two market dimensions, Dividends and Earnings Per Share, describe a surface (P-Value 1.55E-06) that drove the Value of the Dow 30 stocks yesterday (stocks above it may be overpriced, those below it, undervalued).  That Value determines Price, a third market dimension, which, in turn, limits the Quantity sold, a fourth market dimension.

The secret, such as it is, is that such structures occur in mathematical, not physical space.  But they turn up in all markets since they began, just as our DNA has always been with us.

#marketDNA #technology #markets #innovation #hypernomics #4D

COVID-19 Analysis in 4D

Many variables are at work in the COVID-19 pandemic.  Analyses in 4 dimensions help visualize them.  In markets, such structures use prices as objective functions.  As the virus seeks to replicate, its goal is to infect hosts.  We see each infection as a case.

At right, we plot countries’ populations against their COVID-19 cases on April 28, 2020.  Each dot signifies one of the 163 nations in the study.  Unchecked, only the size of the global community caps the number of cases.  However, we observe a yellow line marking the disease’s Infection Limit on that date.  That line is well-correlated (98.6% R^2); there is little chance it came about accidentally (P-value of 8.21E-10).  Countries on or close to that frontier are worse off than those far away from it.

The green side plane represents an equation derived from the population (set to 720,000,000), density, and GDP per capita (P-values in turn of 3.13E-35, 0.68%, and 5.90E-35).  While we would expect infection rates to go up with density and population, its strong relationship to GDP is unexpected.  Wealthier nations have more resources to fight such outbreaks, but it appears their travel patterns more than offset that.

#covid19 #covid19research #covid19analytics

What Supports Currency Prices?

Several factors determine the price of any given country’s currency.  A 4D analysis helps you visualize those influences.  Here, we examine what held up those values on July 12, 2019.

As the red Demand Plane shows us, as the amount of currency issued increases, its price generally falls.

We can (and, in this case, must – we can’t get a functional equation without it) use this influence with others to predict sustainable currency prices in USD.  In the left Value Space, the plane running through the data indicates currency value goes up with added Foreign Exchange Reserves and down with Volume.  The P-Value for this equation is 3.30E-12.  The chance it accidentally predicts the data is that low.

The case manifests The Law Of Value And Demand, which states:

  1. Features determine Value
  2. Value affects Price
  3. Price influences Quantity sold and
  4. Quantity sold is a feature.

The equation explaining the plane in Value Space uses the Prime Rate, set to 2%.  What happens if we set the Prime Rate to 63%?  Check the next post for the answer.

#demand #currency #prices #markets #currencytrading

Plotting in 4 Dimensions

You likely have seen readouts from GPS applications, where a device reveals its latitude and longitude.  That is a 2D plot.  Some GPS outputs also include an altitude reading.  That’s a 3D plot.

In the green Value Space at left, below, the Range (analogous to longitude), MV (momentum, akin to latitude), and 2016 Price (similar to altitude) reveal 3D positions of 1 bomb (the BLU-111) and 2 missiles (the AGMs -158-1 and -84). The BLU-111 has a Range, MV, and 2016 Price of (28, 364,389, $32,000), while the ordered triples for AGMs -158-1 and -84 are (1000, 1,225,2000, $1.912M) and (270, 577,125, $528K), in that order.

The red Demand Plane, at right, describes positions as ordered pairs, with Quantities as the horizontal component, and 2016 Prices on the vertical axis, as (33,330, $32,000), (275, $1.912M), and (4,152, $528K) for BLU-11, AGM-158-1, AGM-84, respectively.  The Demand Plane is a 2D plot.

As the 3D Value Space and 2D Demand Plane share the Price axis, the collectively form a 4D system, as displayed in the diagram and described in the table.

How do we display 5D systems?  Read the next post for an explanation.

#marketanalysis #3Dsystems #4Dsystems

Value, Demand, and 4D States

Last time we tackled Value as sustainable Prices based on product Features, shown in Value Space.  There, 2 Valued Features, horizontal dimensions 1 & 2, drive Value, which determines Price, vertical dimension 3.

We earlier depicted Demand with a horizontal Quantity dimension 4 and the same Price dimension 3.

Last week we showed how the Antarctic claims of Argentina and Australia meet at the South Pole, their air spaces abutting the Earth’s axis.  If we call the South Pole “0,” every point away from it is positive.

As Value Spaces and Demand Planes share a common Price Axis, they abut one another as do the Argentinian and Australian claims.

It follows Value and Demand form 4D systems, such as that for electric cars below.  Every point in Value Space has a matching one on the Demand Plane.  Look at the green lines running to the isolated point in Value Space, connecting to its opposing Demand Plane point.

The diagram shows the Law of Value and Demand:

  1. Product Features determine Value
  2. Value determines Price
  3. Price determines Quantity sold
  4. Quantity sold is a feature

Value and Demand form linked, dual states.

How do we handle more valued features?  Please see the next post for the answer.


Multidimensional Economics

Multidimensional Economics lends itself to making solid models of markets.

This solid 4D model of the S&P 500 comes from the data in the previous post.  Every yellow point in the green Value Space has a matching white point on the red Demand Plane.

Solid 4D models let users get a feel for their markets.  Here, the four dimensions are 1) Market Cap, 2) Return on Assets (ROA), Price, and Quantity (Volume).

Generically, they are 1) Valued Feature 1, 2) Valued Feature 2, 3) Price and 4) Quantity.


US Patent 10,402,838

The USPTO just awarded my team and me at MEE Inc. (now Hypernomics, Inc.) US Patent 10,402,838 for Multivariable Regression Analysis.

This is the first software designed to decode 4D market systems.  Time adds a 5th dimension.