Interest Rates And Currency

Last time, we examined how the amounts of currency and foreign exchange reserves drove currency prices.  There are more forces at work here.

A country’s prime interest rate is one of them.

Below we examine the linked effect of interest rates and currency value from July 12, 2019.  The rates in the study vary widely and are part of what supports the price of money.

At left, we see how the world reacts to the Volume of money, the foreign exchange reserves, and the prime rate, here set to 2% (Sweden’s at that time).  If we change that loan figure to 63% (which Brazil had then), we get the picture at right.  Note the Value response plane is lower.

While the statistics for this analysis are significant (P-Values of 3.30E-12 for the equation, 4.96% for Prime, 3.06E-12 for Volume, 0.01% for Foreign Exchange Reserves), the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is high, at 117.5%, meaning there is more work needed to decompose this market.

#currency #prices #markets #price #investing

What Supports Currency Prices?

Several factors determine the price of any given country’s currency.  A 4D analysis helps you visualize those influences.  Here, we examine what held up those values on July 12, 2019.

As the red Demand Plane shows us, as the amount of currency issued increases, its price generally falls.

We can (and, in this case, must – we can’t get a functional equation without it) use this influence with others to predict sustainable currency prices in USD.  In the left Value Space, the plane running through the data indicates currency value goes up with added Foreign Exchange Reserves and down with Volume.  The P-Value for this equation is 3.30E-12.  The chance it accidentally predicts the data is that low.

The case manifests The Law Of Value And Demand, which states:

  1. Features determine Value
  2. Value affects Price
  3. Price influences Quantity sold and
  4. Quantity sold is a feature.

The equation explaining the plane in Value Space uses the Prime Rate, set to 2%.  What happens if we set the Prime Rate to 63%?  Check the next post for the answer.

#demand #currency #prices #markets #currencytrading

Cryptocurrency Demand Shift

We’ve all heard about a shift in demand.  Not all of us see it in action.  With a dynamic market, we can.  The one for cryptocurrencies fits the bill.

Last August, the top 100 cryptocurrencies had quantities and prices indicated by the white circles in the figure.  Those with a red dot in the center of them formed their red Demand Frontier as of August 1, 2019 (with a P-Value, the chance this equation came about by chance, of 1.28E-04).

Then things changed.

On Friday, March 20, 2020, 94 cryptocurrencies (we lost some), with blue squares for their quantities and prices, reflecting a downward and inward shift in demand.  Each of the Demand Frontier points shifted down (the corralled ordered pairs), except for Tether (which grew slightly) and Ripple (which went down and in).  The result was a shift in the cryptocurrency Demand Frontier to the one in blue, which is steeper (the slope was -1.47, is -1.57) and more highly correlated (R2 was 92.6%, is 96.8%, with P-Value falling to 9.92E-06).  Though the log scaling tends to disguise it, the market lost over 40% of its market capitalization.

What holds up currency prices?  We’ll look at that next time.

#cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #currency #crypto #cryptocurrency #demand

The Demand For Money: Crypto vs. Fiat Currencies

Earlier, we examined Demand for fiat currencies and found they had an Upper and Outer Demand Frontier.  Those types of monies have existed for millennia.  A new form of exchange began to take off over a decade ago.

Cryptocurrencies began to become popular with the advent of Bitcoin.  How does the Demand for cryptocurrencies behave relative to the one for fiat currencies?  As it happens, when it comes to Demand, both payment forms have something important in common.

Below, using a fiat currency study from July and one on crypto 20 days later, note the slopes of their Demand Frontiers are nearly identical.  At left in yellow, the crypto Demand Frontier slope is -1.47 (P-Value 1.28E-04), while that for fiat currencies is -1.42 (P-Value 7.88E-05).  At that time, at the Demand Frontier, cryptocurrencies had reached about 1/1000th of the fiat currency extent. Observe with the steep cryptocurrency Demand Frontier, at its limit, there is more money at the upper end of this curve.  Bitcoin’s market capitalization was nearly twice that of the rest of its market combined.

We need to see how each currency form reacts to the coronavirus. Look for my next post on that.

#currency #demandforecasting #cryptocurrencies #currencytrading

The Demand For Money

Well, that’s an odd title, I’ll grant you that.

Really, what we’re addressing here is the demand for fiat currency.

Recall in previous posts we found Demand Frontiers for multiple markets. Sometimes these curves have breaks. Such is the case for fiat currencies. As shown in the diagram, this market has an Upper Demand Frontier and an Outer Demand Frontier.

Upper Demand Frontiers emphasize the price-limiting boundary for a market, while Outer Demand Frontiers focus on the quantity-limiting ability of a market to absorb the product. These boundaries help countries’ central banks to figure out how many currency units to issue.

What maintains the price of any currency? Please look at the next post for the first of two answers.

#demand #prices #currency #demandforecasting