Production Possibility Curves Are Real

If you search Production Possibility Curves, you’ll get charts trading off product pairs such as wheat and steel, pizza and sugar, or guns and roses.  There are at least 3 problems here.  First, these charts are uniformly hypothetical.  Second, these trades involve disparate markets.  Most firms don’t play across the markets selected.  US Steel doesn’t harvest wheat.  Domino’s doesn’t compete with C&H Sugar.  Smith and Wesson don’t sell in flower auctions.  Third, producers don’t need conjecture but want the specific tradeoffs in their industries.

We can instead derive actionable production possibility curves based on real data.  As shown for the 2018 electric car market in A below, a curved surface describes how the market values horsepower and seat count.  As we set three price targets as horizontal planes, they intersect the curved surface as curved lines, as shown in B.  Those lines overlay open spaces in the market, revealing product feature pairs with economic distance between them and existing models.  In 2018, with horsepower as the first feature and seats as the second, new models with (255, 6) or (331,4) at $60K, or one with (647,6) at $100K find themselves in open market space.

#productionpossibilitycurve #trading #markets #prices

Many Features Can Determine Value

Last time we looked at how 3 features revealed value in stocks.  But, stockholders do not limit themselves to some fixed number of features in their collection buying decisions.

Here, the market considers at least 4 features simultaneously.  It entertains 1) book value per share on one horizontal axis, 2) market capitalization on the other, and then, if it sets 3) EPS to 20 and 4) stock volume to 10 million, it produces the surface at left.  If it resets the stock volume to 1 million, it shifts that surface upward.  [This analysis excludes Amazon.]
Stocks support higher prices with higher earnings and book values per share.  But prices climb as market capitalization goes up and volume falls.  Accounting for opposing forces is crucial to market analysis.

This S&P 500 study only examines stock parameters.  As the world reacts to COVID-19, we see the impact of global market factors.  Stocks fall with uncertainty.

In markets such as the S&P 500, with a sufficient number of entrants, several measures of demand come into view.  The slopes of 2 important demand curves start to converge with enough market participants.  See the next post for a discussion of their differences and similarities.

#stockmarket #equities #markets #trading #stocks