Hypernomics 1, Funny Math 0

“Everybody funny, now you funny too” – George Thorogood

This is sad.

In December, I showed how the Aerion AS2, A, had a 1 in 40 chance of making its sales goal of 300 supersonic business jets at $120M in 10 years.

They shut down Friday.

Crucially, all 55 aircraft over $80M that sold over the ten years in Figure C were specially modified “green” airliners, based on long-standing Boeing and Airbus models. Each one requires only a few million added dollars in design and modifications, a tiny fraction of the AS-2’s estimated $4 billion development cost.

Aerion said that “in the current financial environment, it has proven hugely challenging to close on …large new capital requirements to finalize the transition of the AS2 into production.” That hints they are pointing to the pandemic as their primary dilemma.

But the low sales for the Concorde (B) reveal a more pervasive problem. Yes, it was worth every penny spent on it, as its buyers confirmed when they bought them. The issue for the Concorde then and the AS2 now is that there are not enough pennies to go around to make the optimistic sales goals each company set.

Demand analysis lets you know that before you spend $1B and find out the hard way.

#hypernomics #demand #market #aerionAS2