August 29, 2023
Markets’ Visible Hand
Cost estimating tools. Scheduling programs. Enterprise software. All these types of platforms are concerned about what goes on inside a firm.
But when a company looks out the window, what will it see?
In his first FREE online seminar for the Society of Cost Engineers, Doug Howarth reveals a world of previously hidden forces and unseen problems that have existed in markets since they began. They lie in wait for firms that choose to ignore them. Now you can find them for the first time.
At the same time, in those markets, there are also a host of opportunities waiting for you to map and find them. You just need to know how to look. This seminar will show you what to look for, how to find it, and what to do with the ones you find.
Lots of firms are very interested in their costs, and rightly so. Skyrocketing costs can put a company out of business. But there is more to the picture. As Doug Howarth shows in this seminar, understanding Value (as sustainable prices) and Demand (the sales quantities), along with Cost are crucial in determining Profit. Using his company’s patented software, Doug shows you how to increase profit by dissecting the market.
2023 Annual Conference Presentation
San Antonio, TX – May 31, 2023
(Cost Scene Investigation: European Union)
In criminal investigations, CSI units come to the scene and perform autopsies on victims. Why should businesses treat their failures any differently? Wouldn’t we learn something? Better yet, what if we could figure out potential fiascoes in advance?
Across industries, post-mortems are seldom done for programs that overrun their budgets. As a result, whatever lessons that could be learned are lost to history. Companies repeat the errors of the past. More poorly run company campaigns run amok, with their monies gone forever. The problem is pervasive. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, about 20 percent of small businesses fail within the first year. Only 30 percent of businesses will remain by the end of a decade. Clayton Christensen, a professor at Harvard Business School, points out that nearly 30,000 new products are introduced each year and 95% fail.
But what if that were to change? In CSI EU (Cost Scene Investigation – European Union), Doug Howarth examines the problems encountered by the Airbus A380 and DeLorean DMC-12. He discovers, as you will, that we cannot only determine why these products failed, but we could have known their issues in advance and prevented them.
September 14, 2022
Using Hidden Dimensions to Solve Unseen Problems
In this wide-ranging talk to the Department of Homeland Security, Doug Howarth shows how to 1) rearrange a restaurant to make more money, 2) find a deal on ground beef, 3) keep the price of a country’s currency high, 4) how to maximize tax revenues on recreational marijuana and 5) how to solve for project profitability in four dimensions.
2022 Annual Conference Presentation
Pittsburgh, PA – May 18, 2022
8D Cost Trades with Entanglement
Many modern goods have elements that have substantial costs or create hazards if unavailable. If a component begins to add more cost than value to a final product or becomes hard to get, the project’s viability may be at risk. Here, we study the connections between a subcomponent and an ultimate product across interrelated market pairs. We look at their seven primary dimensions to visualize market mechanisms and add time as an eighth dimension.
Watch Individual Sections:
The economic world does not operate in the ways you’ve been taught. Without seeking hidden dimensions, you’ll find it hard to solve unseen problems. This video shows you how to do just that.
A Simple Disproof
As he begins his tale, Doug Howarth relates how, in a simple trip to an electronics store, he realizes how his wife works out what she wants to buy in four dimensions – and so does everyone else.
He imagines his only daughter as a pair of twins, and they discover a simple disproof of a long-held economic tenet, piquing their curiosity.
Dot Maps & Self-Organization
The twins make dot plots of business aircraft, and their turbofan engine markets, in which every point represents a model and some of its attributes.
They find the markets self-organize.
Here, the twins imagine themselves at the South Pole, where they make a series of interesting observations. They enable new coordinate systems and previously hidden ways to depict markets, discovering that when it comes to higher dimensions, 3+2=4.
Part Five: Economic Entanglement
The twins note that if an aircraft manufacturer makes a new business jet with more speed and a larger cabin, it will fetch more money. But it will, at the same time, sell fewer units. Their conclusion is that Value and Demand are entangled.
Part Six: 4+4=7
As Value and Demand are entangled, so, too, are business jets and the turbofan engines that go into them. Noting that means that when comparing two related markets 4+4=7.
Part Seven: But What About Demand?
The Twins have a bad feeling about the viability of an emerging business aircraft market entrant. They study estimates about its Cost and Value and conclude both assessments seem reasonable. But the manufacturer has posted sales projections – they wonder if those are realistic targets.
Part Eight: Markets in Motion
Having seen market Demand snapshots at points in time, the Twins wonder how Demand moves over time. Rather than guess, they take time to plot it.
Part Nine: 7+1=8
As everyone knows, 7+1=8. What does that mean for markets? The twins take some time to find out.
Part Ten: Summary
Doug sums up the broad sketch he’s given about markets – it works out the methods shown here work for all markets outside of commodities. And he takes questions from the audience.
“It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.”
Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, Sherlock Holmes
8D Business Analysis With Entaglement
Presented to Business France, April 8, 2022
In this video shot at the Hayward Executive Airport, Doug addresses a group of representatives from Business France (https://www.businessfrance.fr/en/home), a group dedicated to promoting France’s companies. Several French companies attended, building everything from actuators to fasteners to composite parts. Doug showed how using Hypernomics would let them decompose its markets into its primary elements, with the potential to make more money. He offered several practical examples for the group and was well-received by the entire audience.