Fantasy Football: More Real Than Imagined

You’d think that NFL salaries would be performance-based. But, those predictions for running backs seldom exceed R2s of 60%.

Happily, fantasy football gets it right.

In A and B, we predict the value for two NFL running backs. If we take a database of 84 of them and filter out those with no catches or touchdowns in 2019, we get 55 players represented by the A-B points. The equation for their total points has an adjusted R2 of 97.7%, based on their 2019 rushing yards, receiving yards, and touchdowns (P-values 1.66e-27, 8.65e-16, and 9.94e-15, in that order).

Leonard Fournette and Todd Gurley had nearly equal scores but took different paths to success. Fournette, in A, had many rushing and receiving yards as he scored 3 TDs. His actual score (183.4 points) exceeds his prediction (164.2). Gurley (B) had fewer yards but scored more often, and his exact number (188.4 points) mimics the prediction (186.4).

Christian McCaffrey and James White contributed much more than this equation suggests. Both had nearly 3 standard deviations worth more points than their predictions. Multiple different variable combinations would offer more insight into player contributions.

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